Two really interesting books on global
population growth were recently published, one by Stephen Emmott (1) and one by
Alan Weisman (2). After seeing reviews on line I look forward to reading both
of these books. It is about time that someone clearly stated that we need not
merely to stabilize global population but to dramatically reduce it in order to
prevent total environmental disaster. Unfortunately the trends are not
encouraging. The UN has just revised some of its global population predictions
upward. Moreover the much-hallowed ‘demographic transition’ whereby increased
wealth leads to lower fertility is showing some strain. Thus some very recent
data indicates that in China and elsewhere, higher income women are having more
rather than fewer offspring. It is hard to see how voluntary measures to spread
use of contraception will really impact the enormous momentum of current
population trends. The projections for population growth in certain less
developed areas such as Africa are truly frightening and will be accompanied by
increased consumption, resource depletion and environmental degradation.
However, the really sad thing is that the US, which should know better,
continues to pursue economic policies that emphasize rapid growth, based partly
on an immigration-driven rapid population increase. We need to start thinking
about new economic models that do not require constant growth (and constantly
increasing environmental destruction) in order to attain a decent life-style
for most people. A few economists have started to address this task (3).
(1) 10 Billion. Stephen Emmott,
Allen Lane 2013. ISBN: 9780141976327
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